The impact of land use and slope change in flow coefficient estimation
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Abstract
The prediction of floods, which are widely recognized as one of the most devastating hazards on our planet, poses significant challenges primarily stemming from the absence of a dependable forecasting model. Following seismic events, floods rank as the costliest natural calamity in Turkey. The mitigation of existing challenges can be significantly enhanced through the utilization of flow coefficient calculations, which serve as the foremost determinant of flood flow dynamics. The extant body of literature encompasses a diverse range of methodologies for modelling flow coefficients. However, the majority of these methods depend on black-box techniques that lack transferability. The selection of the fuzzy SMRGT Method for this investigation was based on its consideration of the underlying physics of the event, making it a novel approach. The land use and slope data of the Aksu river basin were utilized. The outcomes generated by the model were compared to the empirical data. The evaluation of the model's performance encompassed various metrics, such as root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute relative error, and coefficient of determination. The findings indicated that the fuzzy inference system that was proposed exhibited a high level of predictive accuracy, as evidenced by an overall coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.998.
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