Ecological risk analysis with the help of geographic information systems in fruit growing; Manisa in Türkiye example

Abstract

With the help of information technologies, which are developing day by day, it has become
easier to perform agricultural analyzes. Positional analyses can be performed with the help of
Geographical Information Systems by gathering Climate, Soil, Topography and İrrigation data
related to Agriculture. These analyses enables to generate analyses for agricultural investment
maps, areas of agricultural conformity, plant pattern determination, etc. The purpose of this
study is to prepare "Product Based Fruit Growing Risk Analysis Maps". Climate, Soil,
Topography and Irrigation data, which are important in the growing of agricultural products
are collected, severity and prospects for risk analysis are determined separately and risk
values are established for each risk factor. The total risk value was calculated by prioritizing
risk factors using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), one of the multi-criteria decisionmaking methods. Thanks to AHP, a methodology for calculating scenario-based risk values has
been developed taking into account different probabilities. With the developed model, risk
maps were created for climate, soil, topography and water constraints. The total risk map was
obtained by combining the risk maps created with AHP. In this study, a model was created by
selecting the Manisa Province Peach product in Türkiye. As a result of the model, the total risk
values were divided into classes as “High Risk Areas”, “Medium Risk Areas”, “Low Risk Areas”
and “Strongly Not Recommended Areas” according to the points they received spatially.