Development of aggregated risk matrix for assessing the pipeline multiple natural disasters and their visualization using GIS

Abstract

This paper presents an approach for the computation and evaluating of an aggregated risk
rating matrix to quantify the vulnerability of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to multiple natural
disasters (ND) on the territory of Azerbaijan. The scope of (ND) encompasses earthquakes,
floods, landslides, faults, mud volcanoes and soil erosions. Our proposed approach merges
individual risk evaluations for each ND with certain intrinsic, but with generalized and
aggregated calculation of final risk value smoothed by Kernel Density Estimation method.
Further, we employ Geographic Information System (GIS) technology for the spatial
representation of the computed risks across the pipeline network by using the final and
aggregated risk values per special cell. This visual approach facilitates a better comprehension
of spatially varied risks and supports the effective planning of risk mitigation measures. This
visual approach aids in better understanding of the spatial distribution of risks, thereby
supporting efficient strategizing of risk mitigation measures. The model was evaluated using
the linear part of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline as a case study, demonstrating the method's
robustness and versatility. The methodology outlined in this study offers a rigorous and
adaptable tool for ND risk assessment using GIS tools, but with some compute intensive
methods. It aims to the enhancing pipeline safety and resilience on the territory of Azerbaijan