Innovative trend analysis of downward surface shortware radiation in Türkiye during 1984- 2021

Abstract

Downward Surface Shortwave Radiation (DSSR) is a crucial factor that plays a significant role
in maintaining the Earth's surface energy balance. It refers to the solar radiation that reaches
the surface, contributing to various environmental processes and influencing climatic
conditions. Understanding the trends in DSSR is particularly important in areas prone to forest
fires, as it can provide valuable insights into the underlying factors that contribute to fire risk.
To investigate the trends of DSSR data in regions susceptible to forest fires, this study
employed an innovative trend analysis methodology. The focus was on three provinces in
Turkey: Antalya (specifically Manavgat and Akseki), Mugla (particularly Datça), and Rize
(specifically the Central area). These provinces were chosen due to their high incidence of
fires, making them ideal study areas for examining the relationship between DSSR and fire
occurrences. The analysis covered a significant time span from 1984 to 2021 and relied on the
Merra-2 dataset, a reliable and comprehensive dataset provided by NASA. This dataset
includes a wide range of atmospheric parameters, including DSSR, allowing researchers to
assess long-term trends and patterns. By analyzing the DSSR trends in these regions, the study
aimed to gain insights into the potential connections between variations in DSSR and the
occurrence of forest fires.