Analysis of the vulnerability of rural settlements to earthquakes in TMA using fuzzy inference system and spatial statistics techniques

Abstract

The Tehran metropolitan area, encompassing Tehran and Alborz provinces in Iran, is
characterized by a high risk of earthquakes due to multiple active faults and a dense
population. The uncoordinated and unprincipled growth of rural settlements in this region,
coupled with non-standard construction near fault lines, poses a significant potential for
vulnerability to earthquakes. This research paper aims to spatially assess the vulnerability of
rural settlements located in the Tehran metropolitan area to earthquakes by analyzing factors
such as earthquake risk, population density, and building types. The study encompasses the
entire rural settlements situated in Tehran and Alborz provinces. Based on the 2016 census,
the total number of such villages was reported to be 1519. From this population, a sample of
472 villages for which data were available was selected to serve as representative units for
analysis. To analyze the data, a fuzzy inference system (FIS) was employed. This involved the
construction of a database comprising fuzzy rules and the integration of diverse indicators
within MATLAB software. The resulting output was subjected to analysis utilizing spatial
statistics techniques. This study shows the high potential for the vulnerability of rural
settlements located in the Tehran metropolitan area to earthquakes.