Assessing land use/land cover change in Kigali City, Rwanda

Abstract

he unsustainable impact of global urbanization has had a profound effect on urban landscapes across the globe. This study comprehensively assesses spatial characteristics, causes,
and negative effects of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in Kigali City over the past two decades. Landsat images from 2003, 2013, and 2023 were classified using ArcMap software to
assess LULC dynamics. Furthermore, the Molusce plugin in QGIS was employed to compute
and forecast the expansion of built-up areas from 2023 to 2033. (1) The classified images'
findings show that the built-up surface's expansion experienced substantial growth. (2) Additionally, the predicted changes reflect the persistent increase in the built-up surface and reduction of the non-built-up surface. (3) Besides, the study highlights the challenges of population
growth, contributing to negative impacts on agricultural land, global warming, and the urban
heat island effect. In light of ongoing development and expansion in Kigali, researchers have
advised implementing integrated land-use planning strategies, such as establishing compact
and mixed-use areas (comprising Midrise or Highrise apartments). These strategies seek to
manage urban sprawl, maintain a harmonious relationship between urban growth and the
environment, and foster a sustainable and livable city for its inhabitants.