Geospatialtechnologies for early warning and assessment of climate change impacts on wheat yields in Azerbaijan

Abstract

Global warming presents significant challenges to global agriculture, with notable
implications for the Republic of Azerbaijan's economy and food security. This paper focuses
on the use of Earth Observation data and geoinformation systems to provide early warning
detection of climate-related risks to crop growth and yields. By analyzing satellite imagery and
automated calculation of vegetation indices, the study models the relationship between
climate effects and crop yield. Initial assessments using satellite images revealed that over
15% of Azerbaijani territory was affected by drought in 2021, making it the most droughtaffected year in the past two decades. Test fields were selected based on this data, considering
different adaptation capabilities to changing environmental conditions, focusing on the main
crop type, wheat. Comparative analyses were conducted to assess crop growth and predict
yields under various climate change scenarios. By developing maps and collecting statistical
data, the study uncovered the dynamics of crop condition changes and forecasted yields
during growing seasons. The research also tested a model for assessing climate change effects
on crop yields. The findings of this study provide a valuable foundation for the efficient
planning of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture.