Analysis and forecasting of coastline morphology in Pakistan using digital shoreline analysis

Abstract

A sustainable protective strategy's design and informed coastal management depend on the assessment of coastal erosion and accretion. This study analyses Pakistani coastal dynamics from 1990 to 2020 using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) version 5.1 linked with ArcGIS software. The study, which focuses on erosion and accretion, uses metrics like Liner Regression Rate (LRR), End Point Rate (EPR), and Shoreline Change Envelope (SCE) to divide the area into four segments (a, b, c, and d) within the western zone. The findings show that the rates of erosion and accretion along Pakistan's coastline vary significantly. Maximum erosion rates are found on Transect Id 49, which reaches -42.28 m/yr; maximum accretion rates are found on Transect Id 105, which reaches 2.27 m/y to 2.77 m/y. Significantly, regions bordering Iran—segment d, in particular—accrete more than the original section between 1990 and 2020. The predominant process is erosion, which affects a large amount of Pakistan's coastline, especially in areas with a high concentration of industry and areas recently devastated by disasters. These results highlight the necessity of customized coastal management plans that take into account the intricate interactions between anthropogenic and natural elements in the area.