Land use and land cover classes affected by possible sea level rise in Mersin city center

Abstract

In this study, a sea level rise (SLR) investigation was carried out in an area representing the Mersin city center located in the south of Turkey. The study area covers an area of ca. 385 km². Future projections provided by the IPCC were used for the SLR assessment. These projections are for the years 2100, 2200, 2300, 2400, and 2500 and the SLR for these periods are  0.83 m, 2.03 m, 3.59 m, 5.17 m, and 6.63 m, respectively. It is aimed to determine the areas affected by the SLR that will occur according to these projections. In this context, land use and land cover (LULC) data were obtained from the CORINE 2018 dataset. The data obtained were adapted within the boundaries of the study area and processesed using various GIS analyses. The results have shown that all LULC classes are greatly affected by the SLR, but in varying degrees. Land losses as a result of SLR are as follows: 0.4% at 0.83 m SLR, 9.8% at 2.03 m SLR, 16.7% at 3.59 m SLR, 21.6% at 5.17 m SLR, and 25% at 6.63 m SLR.