LULC change and CO2 emissions in Shangai 2000-2020

Abstract

The absorption and release of carbon dioxide by different types of land cover, with activities like deforestation or urbanization releasing CO², while afforestation or natural ecosystems act as carbon sinks, affecting the overall carbon balance in the atmosphere. This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use and carbon emissions in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020 using the land use transfer matrix, the carbon emission estimation model, and the standardized error ellipse method. The results indicate that the total carbon emissions from land use in Shanghai have exhibited an upward trend from 2000 to 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 3.055%. The expansion of construction land has been identified as the main source of carbon emissions, while forests serve as the primary carbon sink. Spatial analysis reveals that areas with high-intensity carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in Pudong New Area, while regions with moderate carbon emissions are in Jiading and Minhang districts, gradually expanding towards the northeast. Based on these findings, it is recommended that carbon emission policies consider the characteristics of regional differences, control land use intensity appropriately, and guide low-carbon and efficient land utilization as the primary direction to achieve Shanghai's energy low-carbon transformation.