Spatial analysis of the vulnerability of rural housing to earthquakes (case study: rural settlements in the Tehran metropolitan area)

Abstract

Natural disasters are one of the main factors in the destruction of human settlements and cause much damage to human societies. An earthquake is one of the most destructive natural disasters that can destroy settlements in just a few seconds. Iran is located in an earthquake-prone region where many earthquakes occur every year. Also, the Tehran metropolitan area is one of the most prone to earthquakes in Iran. This area has a high risk of earthquake due to the high population density, high residential density and the existence of many faults. Rural settlements located in the Tehran metropolitan area have a high potential for vulnerability to earthquakes due to their high population density, low-quality housing, and unique socio-economic conditions. This is the reason this paper analyzes the vulnerability of housing of rural settlements in the Tehran metropolitan area.  The statistical population in this research was the rural settlements located in the TMA region. For data analysis, several spatial analysis methods, including IDW interpolation, hotspot analysis, and KMeans spatial clustering, have been used. The results of this study show that the rural settlements located in the central area of TMA have more resistant housing and less vulnerability, and the peripheral areas have more non-resistant housing and more vulnerability.