Spatial flood analysis to determine possible economic damage: Case study of the European side of Istanbul

Abstract

Floods are one of the natural disasters that affect people's lives and cause enormous environmental and economic damage. Istanbul has been frequently exposed to the devastating effects of floods from past to present, especially in terms of human losses and damage to infrastructure. Although various precautions have been taken by the authorities to prevent losses, such as improving stream and infrastructure, none of them have been able to mitigate the effects of floods to a great extent. One of the solutions is to collect spatial and economic data obtained from different sources into a single spatial database and present this synthesized information to decision-makers in an understandable form using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). In this study, a possible flood disaster that may occur on the European side of Istanbul is simulated using spatial flood analysis methods and the results of the disaster are presented. After the inundated areas are identified, the economic dimension is calculated and compared with past events for the validation of risk assessment. According to the results, total damage of more than $500 million is estimated for a possible full-scale flood event on the European side of Istanbul.