Land use change forest scenarios on the Horizon 2025


  • Maryam Sadegihn
  • Khalil Valizadeh Kamran
  • Sayed Asadollah Hejazi


Scenario Wizard, Key factors, MICMAC, Land Change Use, Forest Fandoqhlo


The purpose of this research is to identify the key factors affecting the land use that changes in the forest area of Fondoghlo. At the beginning of the research, 19 factors are designed in forest that use in various economic, social, natural and political dimensions in a 19-19th dimension questionnaire and provided experts to weigh from numbers 3 to 0, with three highlights. The effect and effectiveness of variables were analyzed directly and indirectly in MICMAC software. Finally, eight effective factors were determined in changing the forest use of the Fondoghlo area. At last, among the key factors of land use, distance from the village and population, cutting and harvesting, vegetation, motivation for agriculture to residential and height are the most important key factors in the future of the region's system. after that with the opinion of experts and solutions were designed in three favorable, static and critical spectrum. and after the final confirmation a questionnaire was designed and re-addressed to the research experts, which was used to weigh the numeric between 3- and 3+ Used, and finally the results were entered into the wizard scenario software and the result was obtained in three spectres, 2 favorable scenarios to strong scenarios 5 scenarios and 275 poor scenarios, and ultimately scenarios are achieved as favorable scenarios in three rating spectres Of these, seven scenarios were selected as the most desirable scenario for planning for the future of forest use and in line with its protection.