Impact of Climatic Change on the Irrigated Agriculture–Case Study: Seyhan River Basin

Abstract

Climate change will have an especially negative impact on the Mediterranean region in the twenty-first century. Rising temperatures and more severe droughts will have an impact on precipitation patterns and, as a result, on water resources. The temperatures in the Mediterranean region are expected to rise +3 to 5 °C by 2100. The water-poor countries are likely to be the most affected by 2100, and rainfall is likely to decrease by 20–30% in the countries to the south of Mediterranean. Against these challenges, countries invest in large irrigation projects to increase welfare and to alleviate economic disparities within regions. Lower Seyhan Irrigation Project (LSIP) in southern Turkey is such a project initiated for hydro-energy, irrigation, drainage and flood control. This paper evaluates the adaptation capacity of the Lower Seyhan Irrigation Project area to the future climate change as a case study. The case study reflects the outcomes of the Turkish Japanese bi-lateral project entitled “Impact of Climate Changes on the Agricultural Production System in Arid Areas - ICCAP”. The surface temperature may increase by 2.0 °C to 3.5 °C respectively by 2070. The total precipitation will decrease by 25% in the LSIP area.