Determination of long-term water surface level change in lakes by integration of UAV and satellite data and future estimation with ARIMA

Abstract

Lakes are the largest element of freshwater bodies on the Earth's surface and play an important role in the Earth's water cycle. Inland water bodies, such as natural lakes and human-made reservoirs, are vital for supplying drinking water. Some saltwater lakes, such as Lake Burdur, are not used for drinking water but are home to endangered animal and plant species. Accurate and regular monitoring of inland water bodies and estimation of future water levels are crucial for ecological conservation and management of water resources. In this study, the water surface level (WSL) changes in Lake Burdur, a Ramsar site, between 1984 and 2022 were investigated by integrating the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) obtained by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and shoreline information obtained from Landsat mission. In addition, annual water level elevation changes between 2022 and 2040 were estimated with the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series analysis model. As a result of the study, correlation between water level and reference data was determined with r= 0.999 and an average error margin of 31 cm. In the future forecast obtained with the ARIMA model, it is seen that the water level height decreases to 830,61 m.