Estimation of freight demand at Bartın Port using time series model

Abstract

Bartın Port is one of the important ports of the Western Black Sea Region. In order to maintain their position in the global market where competition is increasing, ports should develop new strategies by carrying out future capacity estimation and efficiency measurements. It is necessary to strengthen the infrastructure and technologies at the ports according to the region and customer demands. In the study, Türkiye's GDP, total cargo handled in Türkiye, the population of Türkiye, and the population of Bartın were defined as independent variables. The time series model using the data obtained by the documentary scanning method was applied to the total cargo handling forecast at Bartın Port with a 95% confidence interval. According to the forecast time series model based on the collected data, the amount of cargo handled at Bartın port is expected to reach 2.8 million tons in the next ten years.