Time series modelling for goat and cow milk price index forecasting by trend analysis and Holt’s method

Abstract

Goat and cow milk is a fundamental agricultural product. Multiple factors can affect the price of milk over time such as production conditions, consumption demand, financial crisis and inflation. Dynamics of the milk price data should be considered to determine trend, cycle, or seasonality in the milk market so each pattern may affect the forecasting method should be used and the estimation results. Hence, the aim of this study is finding the pattern of the milk price time series data and estimation for the next 3 monthly periods. Historical data of Goat Milk and Cow Milk was used from the Agricultural Products Producer Price Index data between January 2016 to March 2022 published by Turkish Statistical Institute. Considering the trend pattern, trend analysis and Holt’s method (double exponential smoothing) were used. The results demonstrated that the trend pattern may continue in near future, indicating that the procedures used were reasonable.