Geospatial assessment of GLOF hazards in Hunza-Nagar, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
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Abstract
Globally, rising temperatures have led to variations in various natural phenomena, most notably the formation, shrinkage, and expansion of glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region. A number of these lakes have recently been outburst, creating Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) that have severely damaged downstream infrastructure and caused significant loss of life. This study uses geospatial techniques to evaluate the GLOF hazard in Gilgit Baltistan's Nagar Valley. As input data, Google Earth Imagery and the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) have been used. The hazard zone is marked off and the components that are at risk are mapped using buffer analysis. The findings suggested that GLOF might be caused by Passu and Borit Lakes. The lakes' respective volumes have increased from 1425005 m3 and 1944566 m3 in 2019 to 1983911 m3 and 2255715 m3 in 2022. Parts of the Karakoram Highway and a few villages downriver to the Passu and Borit Lakes along the Hunza River are among the risked areas. The results of this research will be useful in lessening the negative effects of GLOF events in the sub-watersheds of Passu and Borit. The findings can also help policymakers create a system for the advanced geospatial hydrologic/hydraulic modeling techniques that will enable the safe and economical monitoring of glacier lakes and the hazard and risk assessment of GLOFs.
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