The relationship between macroeconomic variables and oil prices and analysis of global oil prices
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Abstract
This study unravels the complex web of factors influencing OPEC crude oil prices, going beyond the immediate impact of isolated events. To this end, it has developed a multifaceted approach that uses nonparametric regression, correlation analysis, ARIMA forecasting, and spatial analysis with ArcGIS in a combined and integrated manner to reveal the interaction of variables that make up the family of macroeconomic factors and oil prices. The analysis confirms the expected positive correlations between oil prices and factors such as inflation, exchange rates (when the local currency weakens), and GDP (indicating increasing demand with economic growth). But it also explores the more complex relationship between oil production and price. Through the use of visualizations and forecasts, the study offers valuable insights into these relationships and provides projections for future price movements. This comprehensive approach provides a richer understanding of the multifaceted influences on oil prices, informing the decisions of policymakers, industry leaders, and investors navigating the complexities of the global oil market.
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References
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